We Are Living In The Great Releveling


Johannes GutenbergImage via Wikipedia


Years from now we will talk about living during the Great Releveling the way our grandparents spoke about the Great Depression. Times were tough, people tightened belts, many lost everything they had spent a lifetime building. But the Great Releveling will not be known only for gloom and doom but also for new and fundamentally different business models that emerged from this event.

The last time we had a Releveling of the sort we are now experiencing was over 500 years ago when an entrepreneur in Mainz, Germany invented a machine to mass produce books. His first product, The Bible, put a lot of monks out of work but also set the stage for an age of enlightenment that extended until just a couple years ago. Johannes Gutenberg democratized knowledge that eventually toppled the feudal systems of government that had evolved from hunting groups millennia before. His invention fundamentally changed the world and is still being felt today. Talk about a legacy.

I think the internet is doing this same thing right now. But the Royalty and Gentry are not the big losers but media companies who are not willing or can’t make the transition to a digital business model. Bob Garfield recently posted about this over at Ad Age and his main point — advertising doesn’t work anymore — is spot on. We are not living in a time where any business can rely on a single monetization strategy; welcome to the hybrid world.

You can see glimpses of the future now with services like Hulu, Amazon On Demand, Apple TV and Netflix. But each has issues to overcome before there is widespread adoption. On one hand, I like the simplicity of a monthly subscription that Netflix is selling. I can stream a selection of movies and TV shows to my Xbox or TiVo for a fixed fee. They even let me get DVD’s in the mail but this is a doomed model long-term and they know it. But I don’t have access to their entire catalog to stream at a moments notice which is it’s Achilles Heel. Amazon On Demand and Apple TV let you buy or rent content but their pricing model is too high. Why should I spend $4 to watch a movie when I can pick it up for a dollar at Redbox (or for free with their codes)? Hulu is an interesting idea — basically TV on the internet — but it will be doomed to failure since people will not tolerate more than just short interruptions in this post-TiVo world. They simply can’t run any more ads than they do now to retain viewers and I can’t imagine they are making much money for the short ads there now.

So how can information and entertainment be monetized?

I think it can only be a hybrid between advertising, it’s cousin product placement and subscription or purchase. So in this scenario a modest monthly service fee might be joined by short, “sponsored by” type product pitches. Hulu has most of this figured out today and should replace their interstitial ads in the programs with a straight-up under $15 a month subscription fee for unlimited, ad-free streaming. Amazon and Apple should adopt some sort of subscription model or just lower prices in order to be more than just a transitional service.

The days of broadcast and print advertising are over. The Great Releveling has begun. Get used to it.

How I Would Save The Star-Tribune



[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”240” caption=”Image by afagen via Flickr”]Obama Star[/caption]


The newspaper business is on the ropes. Subscriptions and newsstand sales are down while advertisers move their money elsewhere. A new generation is coming of age hardwired to the internet, electronic distribution and social networking. They don’t read newspapers. And print production costs continue to rise.



Here in the Twin Cities we are still a two newspaper metro. The Star-Tribune on the Minneapolis side of town and The Pioneer Press on the St. Paul side. And like a lot of other papers around the country, the Star-Tribune is doing the worst of the two, has declared bankruptcy and is looking over some bleak prospects. Within a couple years, I think, we will be down to one paper here unless the economy improves faster than anyone is predicting or the Star-Tribune is bought by someone looking for a big tax deduction.

So what can the management of the Star-Tribune do in such a situation? Plenty from my perspective but it’s tough medicine.

Here’s my 5 point plan to transform the Star-Tribune into a profitable business:



Get Out Of The Print Business: Print is dying and it’s also a large part of the cost structure for the paper. Sell the printing department to someone else. Since the Twin Cities still has a good sized print community, this should be pretty straightforward. Now look for a print partner to do your production for the lowest price (this might be the same company who bought your printing department).

Cancel Weekday Hardcopy Editions: Yes, go down to 3 print editions a week from Friday-Sunday. You’ll take a hit on the subscription revenue but that’s the least of your worries right now. The savings in printing and delivery costs should make up for the shortfall.

Get Behind The Kindle: Electronic distribution is the future and the Star-Tribune should have a $5.99 monthly Kindle edition. Do a contest to educate readers on how great the Kindle is and give some away. Even consider working out some deal with Amazon for a Kindle discount in exchange for a 2 year electronic subscription.

Adopt Blog Software Online: Change the current website CMS to Wordpress or Blogsmith. Run the online site like Engadget with a core of staff writers and a ton of freelancers. Post often and repost on all the social networks and messaging services. This will create more online traffic and more advertising revenue.

Embrace User Generated Content: There are a lot of good writers in town who would contribute to the paper in return for link-backs and/or a little bit of money. For niche content this would be a lot more cost effective than having staff positions. Encourage people to send their camera-phone pictures and videos of breaking news like CNN does. Good things will happen.

I really don’t think the Star-Tribune will do any of these things but some paper somewhere might. The news business is not going anywhere; the newspaper business is going away. Those who change now will still be around in 5 years. Hopefully one of these papers will be the Star-Tribune.
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iPod Shuffle For Podcasting



[caption id=”” align=”alignright” width=”202” caption=”Image via Wikipedia”]second generation iPod shuffle[/caption]


The single most popular post here is one I did 17 months ago about the inability for the iPod Shuffle to auto-sync podcasts from iTunes. Since then, I’ve just manually dragged my podcasts from the same smart playlist that auto-syncs fine to my 5G iPod. The Shuffle even keeps this smart playlist updated when it resyncs, removing the played episodes in the iTunes playlist. So like a lot of electronic gadgets, I’ve adapted to it’s conventions.

Even with this limitation, I have almost exclusively converted over to using my Shuffle for podcast listening. It’s size and nearly endless battery life make it the music player I always carry around with me (in my Levi’s change pocket usually). With a cassette adapter I can listen in many cars or I can just plug right into the “aux” jack. I can even plug it into my car stereo head unit with an adapter. It’s a pretty versatile music player that keeps me updated during walks and yard work.

I’ve decided I will keep my 5G iPod until it literally dies as the iPod Touch doesn’t yet have the battery life or size for my needs (my 60GB iPod has about 45GB of music and video on it currently). And when that fateful day arrives, I’m not sure if I will upgrade to a new iPod as I’m assuming I will be using my smartphone for most video and music playback (currently leaning toward the T-mobile G1 but the iPhone is not out of the question). But when my Shuffle dies, I will go to Best Buy or Target to pick up a replacement right away. It’s become so integrated into my routine that it would be missed even with the annoying sync issues.
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G1: Openness Takes On Cool

Earlier this week Google and T-Moblie announced the first phone to run Google’s new Android OS, the G1 (a.k.a. HTC Dream). What I find most interesting about this device is the totally open source approach Google and, for their part, T-Mobile have taken with the G1. In stark contrast to the closed system of Apple’s iPhone, the G1 and Android platform will be an technology to watch in 2009.

But it’s not yet clear if Android will become the Chumby of smartphones or an open source alternative to iPhone. There are quite a few good signs that it might be the latter as the G1 seems to be a solid product. In addition to the on-screen keyboard they provide a slide out hardware keyboard. This was one of my own problems with the iPhone (along with price, which has recently been addressed). And since the G1 is on my current mobile carrier, upgrading is much less of a hassle than moving to the Apple/AT&T world.

So I’m going to keep watching this space and see what develops in coming months. My T-Moblie subsidy runs out next May, so we should have our answer by then. And I do believe openness can overtake cool if enough developers embrace Android. Let’s hope they do.

ooVoo: Where Content & Conversation Lives

I just hung up from a 45 minute video conference with Joseph Jaffe and four other like minded bloggers on ooVoo. It’s part of a promotion Jaffe’s crayon is running over the next several days with a number of well-known marketing and technology bloggers.

Our ooVoo conference in progress

What I found fascinating is how six people who didn’t know each other before the call could have a meaningful conversation about new marketing without a lot of warm up from the host. I’d expect even better results for workgroups and other teams where the participants are known and the conversation focused on the task at hand. Or just to chat with your friends. The video quality was good enough to make this service useful for regular team meetings in lieu of the conference room.

The ooVoo client comes in two flavors, the expected Windows and normally ignored-until-later Mac (although this is still in closed alpha, at the moment). I installed this onto my Macbook running Leopard last week and it seemed to connect to ooVoo fine. When I updated to a new build this morning, it didn’t seem to want to run on Leopard giving me an error message saying ooVoo was, “…not supported on this architecture.” But this is to be expected with alpha code. My install on my underpowered Windows Vista box went as expected and the software worked fine until freezing about 35 minutes into our call. We reconnected fine a few minutes later so this problem might have been an issue with my rather meager system, below ooVoo’s published spec.

Since ooVoo includes the ability to record your call, this creates content that can be re-purposed online in a number of ways. I expect to see a portion of this conversation posted sometime soon as an example of how ooVoo will take advantage of and extend this promotion. I think this technology also has some interesting applications for podcasters who can now do video interviews easily and turn them into video podcasts. I think I might try this with my podcast sometime later in the year.

Jaffe calls ooVoo, “Social Video.” He might be onto something. Check it out for yourself here.

Update: I was able to install the current Mac alpha build and get ooVoo to run in my full admin account. My normal Mac user account does not have admin privileges and ooVoo continues to vex me with permissions issues. I will try to use my Mac on my next ooVoo conference on Wednesday night.

My First Computer

Apple //c

Wow, memories poured out when I saw this Flickr unboxing set today of a previously unopened Apple //c computer.

This was the first computer I actually bought with my own money in late 1984 (I know, I could have bought a Mac but it didn’t have any database software yet). I considered a no-name CPM box and the Macintosh before plunking down $1,300 on my new Apple credit card. In addition to the computer, I added a carrying case, AppleWorks software, a 300 baud modem and an Epson dot matrix printer. I think it was around $1,500 when all was said and done. I remember the unboxing and setup very well as I installed the system in my home office in Orange, California.

The //c was not the first personal computer I used as my father bought a Commodore VIC-20 when I was in college. I didn’t do much on that system and completed my undergraduate years banging out papers on my Royal electric typewriter. But when I went into the business world, I vowed to use the latest technology to help me be more successful and this was the reason for my //c purchase.

Since the key reason was managing a database of customers and spreadsheet work, I chose the best solution of the time, the integrated AppleWorks. This was a great environment to work inside where you started one program and had access to word processing, database and spreadsheet apps. The interface was elegant and very task oriented; think Palm OS on a desktop computer in text mode. Later on I bought VisiCalc for more demanding spreadsheets but my core “office” app remained AppleWorks.

This was my computer until I joined Kodak and they send me a Macintosh SE. This was in late 1987 so the //c served me well for 3 years. It remains in a box in my basement along with a replacement amber monitor since the stock green one died 2 years in. Every once in a while I pull it out and start AppleWorks just to go back and remember how cool this computer was some 24 years ago. Maybe I’ll do it again this weekend or just dust everything off and put it on eBay.

Thanks for the memories, Dan and Kathryn!

Photos by Kathryn Yu.

Macworld Predictions

It’s fun to make predictions about new technology, particularly with secretive Apple, Inc. With the demise of Think Secret, the rumor mills have been not as active as normal during the run-up to next week’s Macworld Expo. We’ve seen rumors of tablets, smaller Macbooks and 3G iPhone’s but I don’t think we’ll see any of these things next week. I believe this Macworld will be all about the Mac and not much about the iPhone and iPod.




But I could be wrong as Apple has just announced new Intel Penryn-based Mac Pro’s and Xserve’s so what else might they have up their sleeve ready for announcement next week?




Let’s keep with the Mac theme for a moment and run down the obvious suspects. They will more than likely bump the processors and other features of the current Macbook Pro line-up; ditto for iMacs. The Macbook line will also probably see more of a recognizable change than just internal components but I don’t think it will turn into a flash-based, ultra-portable or tablet that some have speculated. No, I think it will be something radical: a return to the past.


Apple Powerbook Duo, Circa 1993Back in the mid-1990’s, I had a Powerbook Duo. What I liked about the setup was a regular monitor, keyboard and external hard drives housed in a docking station that the Powerbook fit into like a huge floppy disk. When on the road, it was a small, ultra-portable with a tiny monochrome display but it got the job done; I loved it.


What I think will be the biggest story next week is a return to this form factor but with the portable based upon 32 and/or 64GB of flash memory. It seems the folks at Gizmodo have dug up some interesting news along these lines earlier today.


The only other thing I think might be announced is the discontinuation of Apple TV and it’s replacement by a $399 Mac mini with DVR functionality. The rumored iTunes movie rental store would make more sense and another hobby for Steve and Company would be retired.


Well see for sure in 5 days. Stay tuned.

Blu-ray Wins Format Wars

Sony's Blu-ray HD FormatWe will look back in a year or two and point to today as the day Sony won the battle with HD-DVD. Their signing of an exclusive with Warner Bros. for their Blu-ray disc format puts one of the final nails in the coffin for Toshiba and their partners. All that Sony has to do now is match prices for HD-DVD players and their victory will be complete.


Back in the day, I bought a Sony Beta VCR and watched the same thing happen inBlade Runner reverse so it’s fitting I own an HD-DVD player attached to our Xbox 360. Excuse me while I lick my wounds while watching the newly purchased Blade Runner HD-DVD.


In the final analysis, it probably doesn’t matter that much as optical media will be replaced by digital downloads. So companies like Microsoft, who are in the HD-DVD camp, will really not loose too much. And owners of HD-DVD players will probably get some good deals on close out movies in a few years.

Facebook A Roach Motel?

Seems Robert Scoble has been locked out of Facebook after running a Plaxo sync script yesterday. Although it will be interesting to watch this story develop, I think the implications for companies using Facebook is the real story here.


Roach MotelAs I wrote last month, I think companies should use existing social networks like Facebook to engage their customers and not create their own walled gardens. We don’t need yet another social network to join and Facebook has some interesting features that make it a good platform for marketing. But they also are a roach motel where your data is concerned, as Scoble’s troubles highlight.


This doesn’t mean that companies should avoid social networks that don’t let you export data, as they are just a medium for interaction and not just a new way to do email (although this seems to be a popular commercial usage from my experience). I’m hoping that most marketers will come to the same conclusion and not change their plans of using Facebook.A blank space where Scoble used to be...


I don’t expect to see any long-term negative fall out from Scoble’s situation unless the folks at Facebook don’t do the right thing… given what they have done to date, that seems unlikely. My guess is Robert will pop back up as one of my Facebook friends before the week is out.


Facebook a roach motel? You betcha… but I don’t think it matters.

Why Microsoft Will Not Be The Future of TV

DRM.


Any questions?


Nice try, Hugh.